I would imagine there is some pretty sweet beach front property and opportunities for sport fishing, diving, treasure hunting and the like. Land ownership structure, if possible, may prove to be a quiet prize as well. Thank you Kerry! Really enjoy your writing skills and forward macro views deeper than the main stream happy horse shite.
Thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I think Cuba is one of those stories that most people ignore because it unfolds slowly. But history often turns on events that nobody is paying attention to until they’re impossible to ignore.
Whatever ultimately happens, I believe the bigger story is what comes after collapse. The Cuban people are resilient, and I suspect that when the time comes, the Cuban diaspora, American investment, and decades of pent-up entrepreneurial energy could produce remarkable changes.
Appreciate you being part of this community and sharing your thoughts. These conversations are what make this publication worthwhile.
Hey Oz. Not so fast. Puerto Rico is situated to become a natural logistics hub. Plus they have people there who helped restore PR’s grid and they will be in huge demand. Thanks, Kerry
Or does it become “trump Island”!? I’m sure he and the family have their tentacles rapped around prospective land purchases on the island and try to make it the “new Vegas” highlighting their brand. The only opportunity for the 99% ers will be the slave labor that comes with the purchase.
Pamela, Interesting thought. Personally, I suspect Cuba’s future—if and when meaningful reforms occur—will be shaped by a lot more than any one individual or family. The island’s location, its people, and the sheer amount of deferred investment suggest that many players would be involved.
As for the concern that ordinary Cubans would simply become low-wage labor for outside interests, that’s certainly one of the risks. History offers examples that cut both ways. Some countries have experienced tremendous gains in living standards following economic opening, while others have seen wealth concentrated in relatively few hands.
My hope is that any eventual transition benefits the Cuban people first. The entrepreneurial spirit, education level, and resilience of the Cuban people are extraordinary assets. Ideally, returning exiles, local entrepreneurs, and foreign investors would all have a role to play in rebuilding prosperity rather than simply extracting value.
Whatever form the future takes, I suspect it will be far more complicated—and more interesting—than any of us can fully imagine today.
And if it ever does become “Trump Island,” I suspect there will be no shortage of gold-plated golf carts and signature steaks. 😎🌴🍾
After market car parts for 1956 Ford's & Chevy's. The upgrade business! Ha. Anyone have a list of the companies positioned to start this massive investment? Which ones can start earning income to get a return on capital? Know any Cuban's familiar with the immediate found prizes?
I will say the "heads-up" on Cuba by Kerry Lutz is a gift! Sounds like Cuba opening up will be like Black Friday after Thanksgiving, with so many camped out overnight waiting for the doors open.
Great observations, and I suspect you’re right. History suggests that when long-frozen economies finally reopen, decades of deferred demand and pent-up entrepreneurial energy can create remarkable opportunities.
I suspect the first winners won’t necessarily be the glamorous ones. Logistics, construction, ports, telecommunications, power generation, agriculture, banking, shipping, airlines, and yes, perhaps even those aftermarket parts for the classic ’56 Fords and Chevys still lovingly maintained on the island.
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the people who left often retain deep emotional and family ties. The Cuban diaspora has capital, expertise, and connections that could prove invaluable when the time comes. I suspect there are many Cuban-Americans already thinking through what opportunities may arise, even if they’re keeping those thoughts close to the vest for now.
And I agree with your Black Friday analogy. If meaningful reforms ever occur, there will probably be a line forming long before the doors officially open.
I would imagine there is some pretty sweet beach front property and opportunities for sport fishing, diving, treasure hunting and the like. Land ownership structure, if possible, may prove to be a quiet prize as well. Thank you Kerry! Really enjoy your writing skills and forward macro views deeper than the main stream happy horse shite.
Observation:
Nations, like individuals, are often judged by their current condition rather than the forces that produced it.
Observation:
The article argues that Cuba's present circumstances cannot be understood through a single cause.
Conclusion:
Any explanation that relies exclusively on ideology, leadership, or foreign pressure is likely incomplete.
Complex outcomes rarely leave behind a single set of footprints.
The temptation is to identify one culprit.
The challenge is to account for all the evidence.
Thanks for taking the time to read and comment. I think Cuba is one of those stories that most people ignore because it unfolds slowly. But history often turns on events that nobody is paying attention to until they’re impossible to ignore.
Whatever ultimately happens, I believe the bigger story is what comes after collapse. The Cuban people are resilient, and I suspect that when the time comes, the Cuban diaspora, American investment, and decades of pent-up entrepreneurial energy could produce remarkable changes.
Appreciate you being part of this community and sharing your thoughts. These conversations are what make this publication worthwhile.
But what of Puerto Rico ? Abandoned and broke .
Hey Oz. Not so fast. Puerto Rico is situated to become a natural logistics hub. Plus they have people there who helped restore PR’s grid and they will be in huge demand. Thanks, Kerry
Or does it become “trump Island”!? I’m sure he and the family have their tentacles rapped around prospective land purchases on the island and try to make it the “new Vegas” highlighting their brand. The only opportunity for the 99% ers will be the slave labor that comes with the purchase.
Pamela, Interesting thought. Personally, I suspect Cuba’s future—if and when meaningful reforms occur—will be shaped by a lot more than any one individual or family. The island’s location, its people, and the sheer amount of deferred investment suggest that many players would be involved.
As for the concern that ordinary Cubans would simply become low-wage labor for outside interests, that’s certainly one of the risks. History offers examples that cut both ways. Some countries have experienced tremendous gains in living standards following economic opening, while others have seen wealth concentrated in relatively few hands.
My hope is that any eventual transition benefits the Cuban people first. The entrepreneurial spirit, education level, and resilience of the Cuban people are extraordinary assets. Ideally, returning exiles, local entrepreneurs, and foreign investors would all have a role to play in rebuilding prosperity rather than simply extracting value.
Whatever form the future takes, I suspect it will be far more complicated—and more interesting—than any of us can fully imagine today.
And if it ever does become “Trump Island,” I suspect there will be no shortage of gold-plated golf carts and signature steaks. 😎🌴🍾
After market car parts for 1956 Ford's & Chevy's. The upgrade business! Ha. Anyone have a list of the companies positioned to start this massive investment? Which ones can start earning income to get a return on capital? Know any Cuban's familiar with the immediate found prizes?
I will say the "heads-up" on Cuba by Kerry Lutz is a gift! Sounds like Cuba opening up will be like Black Friday after Thanksgiving, with so many camped out overnight waiting for the doors open.
Great observations, and I suspect you’re right. History suggests that when long-frozen economies finally reopen, decades of deferred demand and pent-up entrepreneurial energy can create remarkable opportunities.
I suspect the first winners won’t necessarily be the glamorous ones. Logistics, construction, ports, telecommunications, power generation, agriculture, banking, shipping, airlines, and yes, perhaps even those aftermarket parts for the classic ’56 Fords and Chevys still lovingly maintained on the island.
One thing I’ve learned over the years is that the people who left often retain deep emotional and family ties. The Cuban diaspora has capital, expertise, and connections that could prove invaluable when the time comes. I suspect there are many Cuban-Americans already thinking through what opportunities may arise, even if they’re keeping those thoughts close to the vest for now.
And I agree with your Black Friday analogy. If meaningful reforms ever occur, there will probably be a line forming long before the doors officially open.
Does Cuba become the 51st state? Or just a territory like the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico?
We don’t need any more states unless it’s Albera. Just a protectorate/commonwealth.