CUBA RISES 🌴🚀
Why the biggest story of the next decade may be unfolding just 90 miles from Florida
While the world’s attention is focused on Iran, Ukraine, China, AI, gold, silver, inflation, and politics, a far bigger story may be quietly developing in America’s backyard.
Cuba. For years I’ve argued that Cuba wasn’t heading toward collapse.It was already collapsing. And that was 10 years ago when I visited the Island. However, it did have two redeeming factor: the rum and the cigars were still excellent.
But that was then and this is now. The blackouts. The fuel shortages. The food shortages. The deteriorating infrastructure. The mass migration. The loss of hope among young people. These weren’t warning signs. They were symptoms of a nation that had already crossed the line.
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Most people see Cuba as a small island nation with eleven million people. That’s a mistake. Cuba occupies one of the most strategic locations in the Western Hemisphere. Just ninety miles from Florida. Positioned at the crossroads of North America, Latin America, and the Caribbean. When Cuba changes, the ripple effects extend far beyond Havana.
🌎 The implications touch Florida, Texas, the Gulf Coast, Latin America, and ultimately the global economy.
While Everyone Watches Iran ⚠️
As I write this, markets seem to believe the Iranian conflict is winding down. Maybe they’re right. Maybe they’re wrong. Personally, I’m not convinced we’ve seen the final chapter.
Israel has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to continue operations until it believes its strategic objectives have been achieved. History is filled with wars that appeared over before they actually were.
Oil prices have backed off. Markets have relaxed. The headlines have moved on. But that’s exactly why this matters. The event everyone is watching is often not the event that ultimately changes the world.
History has a funny way of sneaking up on us. The Soviet Union didn’t collapse because of one headline. China didn’t become an economic powerhouse because of one headline. And Cuba’s transformation won’t happen because of one headline either. It will happen gradually. Then suddenly.
⚡ By the time everyone agrees it’s important, much of the opportunity may already be gone.
The End of a Cold War Relic
The Cold War officially ended decades ago. But Cuba remained one of its last surviving symbols. For generations the island survived through subsidies, foreign support, and economic arrangements that delayed the inevitable. Today those lifelines are weaker than ever. Reality is taking over.
When the lights don’t stay on, ideology doesn’t matter. When the shelves are empty, ideology doesn’t matter. When doctors, engineers, entrepreneurs, and young workers flee in record numbers, ideology doesn’t matter. Reality always wins.
📉 Economics eventually defeats politics.
The timing varies. The outcome rarely does.
The Hidden Winners: Florida, Texas, and the Gulf Coast 🌴
Most people think about Cuba’s future in terms of Cuba. They’re missing half the story. A rejuvenated Cuba and a recovering Venezuela could create a powerful economic boom throughout Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Alabama, Mississippi, and much of the American South.
Think about who left. Millions of Cubans and Venezuelans didn’t disappear. They built businesses. They accumulated capital. They developed expertise. They created networks throughout the United States. Especially in Florida and Texas.
The Cuban exile community has spent decades waiting for an opportunity to reinvest in their homeland. Many never stopped dreaming of rebuilding family businesses, restoring properties, launching new ventures, and helping relatives create opportunities that simply weren’t possible before.
💰 Imagine billions of dollars of private capital flowing back into Cuba.
🚢 Imagine expanded shipping, logistics, ports, trade, tourism, telecommunications, and construction.
✈️ Imagine direct business links connecting Miami, Tampa, Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, and Havana.
The winners wouldn’t just be Cubans. The winners would be Americans as well. Florida could become the primary gateway. Texas could become a major source of energy, industrial equipment, engineering services, and investment capital. Even Alabama could benefit through logistics, manufacturing, shipping, and technical exports.
And yes, cigar and rum enthusiasts like yours truly are paying very close attention. 🚬😎
What Happens If Cuba Reopens?
This is where things become truly interesting. Imagine a Cuba with:
✅ Reliable electricity
✅ High-speed internet
✅ Modern telecommunications
✅ Property rights
✅ Entrepreneurial freedom
✅ Foreign investment
✅ Modern infrastructure
✅ Strong economic ties with the United States
The island could become one of the largest economic redevelopment projects in the Western Hemisphere. Construction firms would benefit. Telecommunications companies would benefit. Agriculture would benefit. Transportation companies would benefit. Financial institutions would benefit. Tourism would benefit.
Most importantly, ordinary Cubans would finally gain the opportunity to build prosperity rather than flee in search of it.
The Bigger Lesson 📊
The story of Cuba isn’t really about Cuba. It’s about economics. It’s about incentives. It’s about reality. You cannot consume more than you produce forever. You cannot suppress incentives forever. You cannot drive away productive citizens forever. You cannot ignore demographics forever. And you cannot build prosperity on wishful thinking.
These lessons apply everywhere. Washington. Brussels. London. Beijing. Havana.
The mathematics don’t care about ideology. The mathematics don’t care about political systems.
📈 The mathematics simply keep score.
Why Investors Should Care
Investors constantly ask why I spend so much time paying attention to Cuba. The answer is simple. Major turning points usually begin where nobody is looking. Everybody is watching AI. Everybody is watching Iran. Everybody is watching gold and silver. Everybody is watching elections.
Very few people are watching Cuba. That alone makes it worth watching. History rewards those who identify important trends before they become obvious.
The Bottom Line
My view remains unchanged. The story isn’t that Cuba is collapsing. The story is what comes next. A rebuilt Cuba could become one of the most fascinating geopolitical and economic stories of the next decade. It could reshape the Caribbean. It could strengthen America’s position throughout the hemisphere. It could generate enormous economic opportunities. And it could finally close one of the last unfinished chapters of the Cold War.
🚀 Sometimes the biggest story in the world isn’t the one dominating the headlines.
Sometimes it’s the one quietly unfolding just beyond the horizon.
❓What do you think?
Will Cuba experience meaningful reform?
Will the transition be peaceful?
Could American investment help rebuild the island?
Will Venezuela follow a similar path?
And could Florida, Texas, and the Gulf Coast become the biggest beneficiaries of all?
Leave a comment below.
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And as always, please be my eyes and ears around the world.
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I would imagine there is some pretty sweet beach front property and opportunities for sport fishing, diving, treasure hunting and the like. Land ownership structure, if possible, may prove to be a quiet prize as well. Thank you Kerry! Really enjoy your writing skills and forward macro views deeper than the main stream happy horse shite.
Observation:
Nations, like individuals, are often judged by their current condition rather than the forces that produced it.
Observation:
The article argues that Cuba's present circumstances cannot be understood through a single cause.
Conclusion:
Any explanation that relies exclusively on ideology, leadership, or foreign pressure is likely incomplete.
Complex outcomes rarely leave behind a single set of footprints.
The temptation is to identify one culprit.
The challenge is to account for all the evidence.